A view to a fall? (in first edition prices)

Are prices for James Bond first edition books struggling amidst an uncertain economy, and with a new film to maintain interest still at least several years away?

A few week ago saw an anniversary that not many James Bond fans will have cheered – the ticking over of four long years since the last time cinematic Bond was last on our screens (UK release date, 30^th September).

It was a film that was already pushed back three times (it was originally due for release in April 2020), and with news that Bond 26 director Denis Villeneuve won’t even start searching for a new actor till next year (after he’s finished putting together Dune 3), we’re looking at shooting not starting till 2027 and 2028 looking like the most likely release date. Whatever way you look at it, this is one hell of a long wait.

For reasons already blogged about, the health of cinematic Bond very much matters to the health of literary Bond.

We already know books (and literary characters), tend to make successful films. Research by the Publisher’s Association found 43% of the top twenty highest-grossing films in the UK from 2007–2016 were book-based. Movies based upon Ian Fleming’s James Bond have grossed $7.83 billion worldwide, making it the second-highest grossing movie series based on books. And the impact a new film can have on book sales is also fairly clear-cut too.

We know, for example, that in the four week period that followed the movie release of “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone”, book sales more than tripled over the four weeks previously, selling 956,700 units. 'The Martian' movie helped the book achieve 62,000 sales in the days following its release, while the 'Fifty Shades of Grey' book saw its sales increase by 738% compared to the three previous months. Data also shows film adaptations provide the biggest boost to a book’s Goodreads popularity, increasing the number of ratings by over 1,000%.

While there are no recent figures I can find on the sales boost a new Bond film has on Fleming books sales, there is reasonable evidence to suggest the effect of a new film coming out is still very real - if not quite in the same vein as the 1.5 million copies of Dr. No novel that were sold in the seven months after the film's release of the same name.

For instance, last month, sales of Wuthering Heights - a book that was first published in 1847, and has not troubled the sales charts for a long time - suddenly shot up 504% on Amazon, elevating it to the No. 2 bestselling gothic romance spot. Why? Well, just a few days earlier, Warner Bros released its teaser trailer for a new Wuthering Heights film.

So, we can begin to see why having the films especially matters those who collect the Ian Fleming first editions. Because, not to be too blunt about it, the continued presence of Bond on the silver screen undoubtedly contributes to the continued relevance of the books.

While we might all initially collect Bond because we love the stories, and we love the characters, and we love the written style, the fact is, it's due to the books remaining in public consciousness that helps contribute to the continued ‘value’ these books have as items that hold a residual monetary worth.

Collectors need this certainty. Collections can at least be justified when comfort can be gained from knowing that our books hold some sort of value, and without the films, the books probably wouldn’t have maintained their cache this long.

Which brings me to the long film gap again...

Amongst people I’ve chatted to recently, there is concern that the lack of film Bond is having an impact on the sorts of values the Ian Fleming first edition books have been achieving (and I'm mainly talking Jonathan Capes here).

For those that hold vast Ian Fleming collections, it’s a legitimate worry if there’s a fear the books could soon drop out of public consciousness – because when it’s the films that largely prop this literary awareness up, any unnecessary film delay risks collectors’ appetites ‘moving on’ and them placing their collecting bucks somewhere else.   

But is there any real proof that values have been on the slide?

From my perspective I only have to look at what’s happening to jamesbondfirsteditions.co.uk to think that this is more a worry than reality.

When I look at my own trading activity I see the following:

·      Books aren’t getting any easier (cheaper) to buy:

When I first starting officially trading, I could uncover some amazing ‘finds’ that for one reason or another went under-the-radar and were – to quote a bookseller’s maxim – ‘bought well’. Today, I’m not finding it any easier to buy stock – and when I say buy, I mean buy at a price I think I can make some money on. When I’m looking at prices books are trading for, they’re currently being bought at ‘market price’ – ie what I think I can actually sell them for. This is good in one respect (buyers are still buying at a certain price) – but it’s less good for me in terms of finding stock I can sell. So, if anything, the days of buying really good stock at competitive prices is getting harder.

·      The books that go for nothing are not the best quality:

The books that are selling ‘cheap’ are not – I’m afraid to say – those that the discerning collectors would cherish. They typically have lots of faults (tears, foxing, stains, other condition issues). Where collectors might have overlooked this in the past (and paid high prices for compromised books), I actually think that in an environment where people worry whether what they've bought is also a solid an investment, people are actually gravitating to the more expensive books. They’re not willing to overlook faults like they once were. As in any market experiencing a small wobble in confidence, the wise are drifting more to the top end of the market – where condition can’t be a reason to devalue a book.

·      We’re in strange economic times: 

The books I sell aren’t selling for less, it’s just that they’re just taking a while longer to move. While the rich are still rich, collectors at the less expensive end of the market are having to tighten their belts. Ian Fleming first editions are books that cost hundreds of pounds, and that makes them more considered purchases. It actually means collectors are getting more exacting – especially about condition.

·      The general direction is up: 

We might not be seeing the stellar rises of yesteryear, but there’s still no doubting that the general trend for Ian Fleming first editions is upwards – even though it’s probably a bit slower now. Not many people I speak to say they can buy the same condition book for ‘less’ then they could a few years ago. Remember, as I’ve also previously blogged, booksellers (for the most part), don’t want to hold onto stock. They want to sell, and will price at a level they think they will sell at, so they don't tend to price beyond a sensible selling price.

So, this brings me back to where I think prices are.

Yes, I think that possibly, there has been something of a plateauing out – but I don’t see a big crash yet. I’m still moving books on, at roughly the same rate as before, and I’m seeing people come to me, because I do (I believe) price competitively.

But I say don’t take my word for it either!

My big observation for this week is that the old adage ‘quality always sells’ still very much holds true.

And when it comes to the James Bond first edition books, I know this, because last week I was watching an auction-house auction, with some books that were in absolutely fabulous condition.

I knew these wouldn’t go for nothing, and my worst fears were realised (!) when I quite quickly lost all hope of being able to buy these myself.

The star of the show was undoubtedly this beautiful (above) From Russia With Love first edition, first impression – in absolutely fine condition. It's easily one of the best I've seen for a very long time.

The hammer price was a princely £3,200 (add at least another £1,000 for commission) – which all told adds up to one very tidy amount. I suspect this has already gone to another dealer who will want close to £8,000-£9,000 for it.

Not too far behind was this very beautiful Goldfinger – again in superb, as-new condition.

The hammer price was £2,050 – so add at least another £700 or so in commission.

Even at these very high prices, I still think the buyer(s) will be toasting their purchases (perhaps even thinking they’ve got a bargain), and will be sensing these books are worth more. Whoever got them is likely a book dealer still eying a quick profit, or a private collector buying the best they can.

The point I’m making though, is that when really nice stuff comes out, so do people’s wallets. Quality keeps its premium – even in these tougher economic times, and especially so in this strange holding period we're in between a new film coming out at the cinema.

Where I think I deliver

These weren’t the only books that sold well though.

I'd like to draw your attention to the below books – Dr No, Thunderball, The Spy Who Loved Me and You Only Live Twice - all sold at the same auction. Their hammer prices are in the top right corners.

In my humble opinion, all four of these books sold at extremely high prices (again, quality sells) - and remember, add an extra 30% more or less to the hammer prices shown above.

Bearing this in mind, we're looking at Dr No selling for around £2,655; Thunderball comes to more like £1,365, while both The Spy Who Loved Me and You Only Live Twice are each knocking on the door of £1,000.

Yes, they'll all very nice, but here's why I think www.jamesbondfirsteditions.co.uk is (in my humble opinion) offering the very best quality at extremely competitive prices.

Below shows a picture (far right) of a Dr No www.jamesbondfirsteditions.co.uk is offering. It's placed next to the one that sold last week on the left. The prices of each are superimposed on top. OK, so the title on my book might not be quite so 'white' on the spine, but this is for sale at half the auction selling price. And in all other respects, condition is much of a muchness.

The Thunderball that sold at auction last week was nice, but I've just sold a Thunderball that was just as nice for £800.

Meanwhile take a look at the two You Only Live Twice books. Same as Dr No - last week's auction high-price book, with mine next to it. The one for sale at jamesbondfirsteditions.co.uk for 'considerably less' - £1,000 vs £250.

What I think we can learn here, is that when quality is up there, some very high prices can be seen - indicating Ian Fleming first editions are still very much holding their own whilst we wait for some more on-screen Bond action.

But, if you want quality without last week's auction prices, come to me!

I'm going to be adding a load of new books very soon just in time for the pre-Christmas period (so keep a look out). What I hope I've demonstrated is that yes - some punchy prices are still being reached out there, but shop with me, and you can get near fine to fine condition books for substantially less.

Maybe I need to start putting my prices up!

Buy now while you still can. You have been warned!!