Same title; two books; two sales; two consecutive days. What happened next?

This week there was a rare occurrence. After none coming up for years, two signed limited edition On Her Majesty's Secret Service books went under the hammer on consecutive days. What could possibly happen?

When it comes to rare book collecting, I’ve often said perception has an awkward knack of knowing how to get in the way of reality, causing collectors to commit to a purchase they might not ordinarily have made.

For instance, I’ve written previously about how ruing missed opportunities can create to a powerful desire not to want the next book they see to ‘get away’. Trust me, on several bidding platforms, I’ve missed out on plenty of books by being just a single bid short of winning. And when they did go for that one extra bid, then boy have I regretted not clicking 'bid' just one more time when I had the chance.

Combined with the sensation that if a rare book does come up, it might not do so again for some years [a sensation born out of gut feel on watching books for some years), the feeling of not wanting to miss an opportunity this time around can be magnified even further.

Of course, the best antidote to this feeling is actually to take a step back, and observe that no matter how rare you think a particular title is, all is not lost, that at some point a book you've been searching ‘will’ come up again.

Just like a first edition of The Hobbit did (one of just 1,500 printed), that earlier this year was ‘found’ during a ordinary house-clearance near Bristol (see picture, left).

If people thought this was a rare find, maybe reading this next sentence might change your mind: The press attention this initial story generated actually caused someone to suspect they might have their own Hobbit (which they did). So, it meant that within weeks of eachother, two ‘unknown’ editions of The Hobbit were actually found, in very quick succession.

I mention all of this because this week, that’s exactly what also happened in the world of Ian Fleming ‘super’ rare books.

After there not having been a copy for sale since 2022 (I believe), this week saw two separate sales for limited edition, signed copies of On Her Majesty’s Secret Service.

That's right, you wait for years, and then they literally turn up like buses, one for sale on 19^th November, the other for sale a matter of 24 hours later on 20^th.

It rather proves the point that even with super rare titles (just 250 were printed, with survival rates thought to be 80% at most), you never can tell what’s around the corner.

But I mention this not only to prove that very rare books can occasionally appear two-a-penny, but also because it’s gives us a chance to take a look at what actually happens in the marketplace when these occasions do actually occur (and what might happen if the same appears again, with other titles).

It also gives us a chance to see whether there is any real difference between auctions houses (where both books were being sold). Are there 'premiums', for example, that certain auction houses have that are enough to distort the average prices one might expect?

One of the other big questions I think having two very close sales poses, is how materially each book could be impacted by each other's sale. And could this then be used to declare that prices are flat, when in reality, we've simply witnessed two books competing with each other rather than standing alone.

For the first time that I can certainly recall, we have the ability to compare the prices realised for pretty much two exactly-the-same-books. Both are super exclusive, have exactly the same things going for them (signed by Fleming, part of the 250-limited edition), and, most importantly, there are selling at practically the same time (a day apart) – but from two different auction houses.

One of them was being offered by Bonhams (its example is selling first, on the 19^th November); the other was by Forum Auctions (selling on 20^th).

Forum isn’t exactly a provincial auction house, and it specialises in books, and it probably fancies itself as level-pegging with Bonhams, but here at least was a chance to see what each book would do.

Let's look at the two books there were going under the hammer:

Before going into the results, it’s worth outlining what was available.

Bonhams: It was offering inscribed copy number 250 of 250 (see below).

Things going for it:

It retains its original acetate wrapper.

Things against it:

Contains a bookplate; “slight yellowing to spine,” plus “very faint toning to page edges, some foxing to pages 23-27 and 42-45.” I can also see some white marks to the front board not mentioned in the description.

Auctioneer estimate: 

£5,000-7,000.

Auctioneer premium:

28%

Forum Auctions: It was offering inscribed copy number 138.

Things going for it: Brighter spine and better condition boards. Comes with original acetate jacket;

Things against it: “Occasional very light marginal soiling,” and very slight rubbing to upper cover.”

Auctioneers estimate: £6,000-£8,000.

Auctioneer premium: 38.4% on items up to the first £5,000; then 37% for items between £5,000 and £0.5 million.

Both had very similar estimates, with Forum more bullish at a 5k-8k range, compared to Bonhams' 5k-7k estimate.

Similar books, two consecutive days

While there are a few minor differences, ostensibly we have two very rare books, in similar condition, up for auction at essentially the same time.

The same market conditions exist - but do they, if two books are up within a day of each other?

Of note, both have their original acetate jackets. If one was missing it, this might be construed as a big difference between the two of them. Both are considered near fine.

Minor issue points between the two of them largely cancel each other out. These are two good candidates for a straight one-after-the-other comparison.

So what happened?

It should be noted that the Bonhams sale was a timed auction, and the Forum one was with a live auctioneer - so two slightly different auctioning methods.

The Bonhams copy was scheduled to time-out at 1pm

The Forum Auctions copy was lot number 118 and went under the hammer at mid-afternoon.

There’s a school of thought that says real-life auctioneers are able to gee people up more, to tease any waivering bidders to actually bid. Real auctioneers can also hold off from striking the hammer down, until they are certain no more bids can come in. I’ve seen plenty of auctions where a sale could have ended much earlier than it did, but for the persistence of the auctioneer, and the book eventually sold for many thousands of pounds more.

That said, the times auction creates a hard stop, and forces people to submit their maximum bids. So perhaps it's horses for courses.

If ‘watcher’ numbers are anything to go by, with less than a day to go before the Bonhams auction, Bonhams had 18 watchers, while the Forum one had ‘just’ 8.

The results

1) BONHAMS:

After being up for a few weeks, the Bonhams book finally got its first opening bid of £4,600 with six hours to go.

There were still no further bids with a few hours to go, although about an hour before it ended a second bid came in.

This bid didn't increase the price, so I suspect that the first, initial, bidder put a higher max bid in - just to make sure.

It wasn't need though. With a sold price of £5,888 including premium, this meant it was that single opening bid of £4,600 that got it.

In my mind this is actually a 'cheap' final price.

 2) FORUM AUCTIONS

No bids came in for this book before the Bonhams one ended, clearly indicating that people were waiting to see how the first book fared before putting any bids on this one.

There was no really flurry - perhaps finishing on a Thursday, just after lunchtime, wasn't the most ideal of timings.

After a few bids, the final hammer price was £5,500.

Given the much larger commission of this auction house (including a 5% fee if bidding via a third-party platform), this would have translated to a maximum price to pay of £7,612.00.

What can we learn (if anything)?

I think it's fair to say that the Bonhams book sold (in my opinion), 'cheap', which the Forum Auctions copy sold for much more - nearly £2,000 more.

It could be suggested that the Forum Auctions copy was slightly nicer (nicer spine) - but was it nearly £2,000 nicer, for what is essentially the same book?

The results clearly show that two different books can garner very different prices - and not even the Bonhams name was enough to bring its book close to the Forum Auctions one.

What could explain these differences?

One of my main concerns before the comparison began was whether having two examples ‘so’ close to each other would have a cannibalising effect, creating a discounting impact to be felt on the prices realised.

Supply and demand says that it’s exclusivity that carries its own premium.

Had either one of these books appeared 'on their own', they would have appeared exclusively, without competition, and will have been the first example up for some years.

Seeing two for sale at the same time could have devalued the books in the minds-eye of bidders, suggesting these signed Fleming boos are more plentiful than they really are.

Remember, perception is everything.

Leading on from this, I also wondered whether the book that was auctioned second – the Forum Auctions book – would always have been better-placed to realise the best price, even without any slight condition differences.

With the Bonhams book up a day earlier, no one was going to make a move with Forum until the Bonhams one had sold. When it did then sell, the Forum book would have been left with a clear run, without any competition. It really would now be the only one out there.

Also, anyone who failed to secure the Bonhams book the day before will have known they had a second bite of the cherry.

That would have damaged the price the Bonhams one could have reached, but for any buyers that might have watched the Bonhams sale, they might now know they can throw caution to the wind, to secure the Forum one instead.

By contrast, anyone bidding for the Bonhams book would have had a reason to pull out of the race early, as there was always going to be the ‘second chance’ to get this book the following day (assuming bidders were happy with the condition of each).

By having a ‘choice’ it might arguably mean the Bonhams book might not be best placed to do well, as it was up first. This would be the tester-book, of where the market was. Anyone who bought the Bonhams book would have really not wanted to buy the one a day later.

The bad news

The bad news is that when two books - books that individually are as rare as hen's teeth have the misfortune of going up against each other, in quick succession, it distorts the market, and I think has a deflationary effect. If I'd been one of the sellers I would have pulled my book out, and waited till it had more of a clear run.

The good news

The good news is that two books slugging it out at the same time is a win for buyers. Whoever bought the Bonhams book probably got themselves a bargain. Whoever bought the Forum-auctioned book probably paid closer to what I feel is the market rate.

Conclusions

My conclusions are that circumstances can clearly arise that cause what would ordinarily be classed as a very scarce books to appear less scarce, and therefore the opportunity for savvy buyers to pinch a bargain.

Sold without any competition, I think each book could have probably sold for more (even the Forum book), which just goes to show, that when buying, bad timing for sellers can work in buyers' favour.

I don't think either auction house contributed their own premium to the eventual price - the books sold themselves.

Again though, if sold on their own, I think buyers would have taken each book more at face value, and would have attracted more bids, because buyers would have had no other yardstick to make them more discerning.

Having two up at once was bad, because it allowed small differences to be seen, and gave people a chance to make judgements that they might not have otherwise made.

It all just goes to show, that when people say a book is worth what someone is willing to pay for it, it's true (perhaps), only up to a point.

Sometimes 'happenstance' (to use a word from Goldfinger), can play its own part too.