The outlier book - the start of a 'new (price) norm' or a 'one off'?

When a book sells for a 'lot' more than expected, does this mark the start of a market price correction, or is it just an aberration collectors (and also booksellers), should ignore?

Above: Maurizio Cattelan's 'Comedian' smashed expectations, selling for $6.2 million

In case you needed evidence that prices for things really can go, er bananas, than last week’s auction of a banana duct-taped to a wall – which sold for a whopping $6.2 million – is surely all you really need.

The subversive art – called, appropriately enough, ‘Comedian’ – is the brainchild of Maurizio Cattelan – a man sometimes described as an bona-fide artist but someone who is also regarded as the art-world's greatest prankster; someone who knowingly plays the rarefied art world at its own game , while astutely cashing in, thank you very much. 

Many will sympathise with this. The artwork's new owner – a cryptocurrency billionaire – hasn’t really bought anything at all, only an idea’ - a certificate that allows him to replace the banana every few days if he wants to. Which is lucky, given that he said he intended to eat the fruit as part of a ‘unique artistic experience’.

The outlier item…

For me though, what makes this item intriguing for more than its headline bonkers price is the fact that so far, there have been three previous versions of this particular piece of art – which first debuted at Art Basel Miami Beach in 2019.

But, compared to last week’s one, they have all sold for significantly less – all for between $120,000 to $150,000 – making this latest one a significant outlier example. Auction house, Sotherby’s, probably couldn’t believe its luck at the price it fetched.

…and so it seems to happen with books too

As someone who also sells predominantly the exact same items – all first edition Ian Fleming books – and books that are in (broadly speaking), the same (fine) condition, it’s a particular mystery why identical objects (in this case a piece of art), can suddenly sell for so much more than previous examples.

To my knowledge, there was nothing additional about this latest one – no special extra provenance, no previous owner etc, – that could account its inflated price.

So was the price gained really just the perfect intersection of the right ‘moment’ for it to go on sale, and the right buyer being in the market for it at that time? If it was, Sotheby’s got VERY lucky indeed.

I say all this, because in the world of Ian Fleming, I’m sometimes floored by similar outlier items – books that seem to defy the odds, go against the grain, and ‘shouldn’t' get the price the do. And yet they do-so, and I cannot always comprehend why.

The latest example of this also came last week: a First Edition Library (FEL) of The Man With the Golden Gun (see picture below), which sold for more than £330 – a quite staggering amount when you think about. I see FELs generally sell for much less.

What does this price mean?

A function of being a good bookseller is to watch the market closely, and gauge what is the right sort of price to sell books at. (see my recent blog on 2024 prices of Casino Royale firsts).

Over time, there is, of course, always an inflationary price 'creep', meaning that the Fleming firsts are broadly getting a little bit more expensive each year.

This does have to be accounted for. If you're a collector, and you're not keeping up with prices, you could find yourself being surprised at what books fetch now (see a previous moan here about collectors 'not' always keeping abreast of prices, then being surprised at what booksellers charge). As an example of this, five years ago, it was eminently possible to pick up an OK-condition Octopussy & The Living Daylights for well under £100. This is pretty much no longer the case.

Above: Octopussy & The Living Daylights now seems to be commanding a price reset

I know this, because I spend a lot of time (more than many might think), looking at what other books for sale actually go for.

I do so partly to keep in touch with trends, but also to try and work out what is the natural price creep on display.

Lately, I feel Octopussy is starting to be one of those books that is undoing a price re-set. The above book recently sold for just under £160. It's nice, but is price-clipped, which to me doesn't make it complete.

As such, when other book performs so unexpectedly well, it’s reasonable for sellers to question whether this is the now the new ‘benchmark’ price.

So, the reasonable question to ask about the Golden Gun FEL was whether this book’s selling price was just a lucky one off, and statistically, 'so' against the grain, that it should be discounted?

Or, does it point to the start of a new trend for what this particular item should reasonable expect to sell for now?

Let's examine this:

1) Here’s some possible reasons why I think this FEL book's price could be an isolated one off – and so shouldn’t be used as the new ‘benchmark’:

·      It’s coming up to Christmas: Maybe it was bought as a gift for a loved one/collector, and that boosted its usually lower top-price ceiling.

·      It’s part of a bigger set: Maybe this was the one book a collector, or couple of collectors were missing, and so they fought for it.

·      People got carried away: Maybe the serious bidders got carried away with auction fever – after all, if you’ve already bid £320 for it, do you really want to lose it for another tenner?

·      The ‘Golden Gun’ on boards is iconic: Maybe this particular FEL beat the other FEL odds, because it was the one with the iconic golden gun on its boards. You can’t buy the genuine article for less than the price of a small car nowadays.

·      Someone might have bidded it up: Maybe there was some collusion going on, and friends of the seller bumped the price up to encourage heavier bidding.

2) Here though, is why I also think this book's latest selling price ‘could’ have the potential to be the new ‘going rate’:

·      It’s rare and doesn’t often come up: I see FELs regularly reach between £50-80; sometimes a Casino Royal FEL gets a couple of hundred because it’s the iconic first tile. While you often see FELs come up for sale (Thunderball seems to come up the most for some reason), Golden Gun FELs barely ever come up though. On this basis, it must be judged rarer than others, and so when it does pop up, its scarcity alone bumps its price.

·      The ‘when-will-other-pop-up’ factor kicks in: I’ve covered this topic before (see my blog on the ‘one that got away’) – and believe me, the urge for people not to miss out on a rarely-seen book is strong.

·      FELs have generally gone up in price: While most go for under £100, it’s now less common than it used to for these books to break the three-figure mark. As the Cape originals are getting more expensive, these look-a-like facsimiles are developing their own cult following – launched as they were in very small numbers. Getting a set of these books is seen as an achievement in itself.

·      These book are mostly sold singularly: FELs aren’t usually sold as complete sets, and because they tend to be split up, and sold individually, buyers will pay more for a specific title – either their favourite or one they don’t have (and need).

The bigger question in all of this then, is who decides whether this a high price reached is the ‘new-norm’ or not?

And, more than this, if a few big prices-reached do end up moving the market, and resetting what the ‘going rate is’, is this fair on collectors, who now suddenly have to pay more?

Who controls price?

The good news, I think, is that I still sense that it’s rare for a few big sales to really dramatically alter things,. However, to butcher a famous quote in Goldfinger, once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is a trend’.

What I’m trying to say here is that while a few big sales may not change things initially, over time, they may create an upward price trend.

But who really sets price?

In auction situations, the selling price is clearly controlled by buyers. Attract as many as possible, and it’s almost a given that prices will climb as people battle against their fellow collectors.

Booksellers will, naturally, look at sold prices to gauge their pricing, and sense-check it.

Of course, a selling platform such as www.jamesbondfirsteditions.co.uk is no auction, so it can’t rely on the frenzy of a time-limited-auction.

Here, we rely on the books to do the talking for us. We get the best that we think that are our there, and post many more pictures than other sellers, so you can really showcase the product.

Supply and demand

The only lever booksellers do realistically have for ‘engineering’ an intended price (if that’s really the right word), is the power they have for controlling the speed at which books enter the market.

It’s no big secret that since bookselling started, book purveyors have carefully curated supply, and tend to drip-fed the availability of their books to protect their prices.

Basic economic theory states that dumping everything onto the market at once would dramatically suppress prices.

Exclusivity by contrast, clearly generates desire, and by this logic, can arguably be said to maintain selling prices too.

Are booksellers so bad for doing this?

As someone not quite in the same league as Harringtons or Jonkers et al, I do genuinely tussle with this.

A couple of years ago I recall selling a Dr No to one brand new customer. After I had sold it, I immediately photographed another I had in store and put it up on my site to replace it. Upon seeing the replacement, the person who bought the original book complained, saying he wished I’d listed the other one too (which was ever-so slightly better).

Now, at the time, I don’t believe I was consciously restricting this replacements book’s visibility. I was a rookie in book selling. I had just launched, and wanted at least one example of each title up for display. Indeed, to any repeat browsers to my site, it may not have looked like I’d sold a Dr No at all – the replacement book was almost identical. A curse of selling very good condition books, is that when a tile sells, and another one replaces it, the new listing looks the same as the old one – giving the impression stock is standing still!

But I digress, and on reflection, I can completely see why the buyer may have thought that.

Since then, I do try to put most of my books up, although because of the way my site is designed, and to show off those I do have to their best ability, I don’t like to list more than three of any book (even though I may have more).

So, yes, I do – to some degree – edit what I have. I am conscious of not wanting to show my entire hand.

Here's one very good reason why:

Have a look at this picture (left), to illustrate this point.

A couple of weeks ago, these two Goldfinger books – both 8th prints; and both in similar condition had the amazing coincidence of both being listed 'right after' each other. This is exactly how they were presented in a search of new listings - ie slap-bang next to each other.

This is a seller’s nightmare!!

Imagine being each of these sellers, and seeing a direct competitor right alongside you!

Normally one can go for weeks, if not years, not even seeing even one of this particular edition for sale. Then suddenly, two appear at once, and literally one after another!

The effect these books had was undoubtedly to cannabilise each other – and that’s exactly what putting all your eggs in one basket can do.

In this case, the book that started off at 99p prevailed (reaching a final bidded price of just over £43). The one that had a buy it now (or best offer), went unsold.

This is one of the reasons I do want to slowly release my stock. Although I base my reputation on my skill hunting the best books down (the hunt can be very time-intensive), it’s human nature to worry that having a large selection on show all at once could make this hunt look easy. I still feel I offer choice, but I do also want to keep a few books up my sleeve.

So am I guilty of wanting to control supply to maximise price?

Maybe, yes.

But do I also want to protect my business, and give myself the best chance of making it viable?

Yes too.

The trials of being a bookseller

What I think I’m trying to explain is that bookselling is hard work. I feel that if I put effort into sourcing books, I need that effort to be rewarded.

But I also know customers need to be offered a fair, market price.

I do my best to judge the market and sell for what I think is a keen price – a price commensurate with condition and scarcity.

Remember, www.jamesbondfirsteditions.co.uk spends the time you don’t have to find the best examples out there.

If you don’t see a book, but think I might have one though – make sure you get in touch. I could well have one ‘up my sleeve’.

PS: Let's test the market!

To really test whether the FEL Golden Gun really was an unpredictable one-hit wonder, this week I’ve decided to put my money where my mouth is.

I’ve sat on this FEL Live and Let Die for a while, so I’m going to test whether the market really is hot for FELs – or whether it really isn’t, and whether The Man With The Golden Gun was just an outlier, one-off.

I’m hoping it meets my reasons for being taken really quite seriously.

It’s in superb condition; it’s an iconic and sought after early title. It’s not one that comes up terribly regularly, and it might well be just the one that somebody’s been looking for.

So, will it make £330 (or more?). What contribution will it make to understanding current prices? Will it make the 'going rate', or will it set a new price that could be the new normal level for these FELs?

It’s ending this Sunday on eBay, and next week I’ll share the results….