Are we seeing the start of a period of (upward) price resetting?

Last autumn's Oxford Book Fair was a blast. This year I’m not so sure, and speaking to dealers has left me wondering whether we’re entering a period of upward price re-setting...

If any of you read last year’s post about the Provincial Booksellers Fair Association’s (PBFA’s) autumn Oxford Book Fair, then you recall that as a Bond seller/collector – I was properly in my element.

Having not been before (and unsure of what to expect), I was keen to see what this twice-yearly event could offer the average Bond book collector – people who I rather suspect much prefer digging around for unexpected gems at a physical stall than idly scrolling around online, disconnected from real-life.

Comprising an event that attracts 75+ dealers each time, and all with a range of wares, I was more than pleasantly surprised by what I found at the October 2024 event.

My minor grumble at some seriously high prices was more than offset by seeing some spectacular offerings on show – everything from a proof copy of The Man With the Golden Gun (with its hard-to-find, perfect condition jacket) – as well some beautify Sangorski & Sutcliffe Fleming first edition rebinds, and a Smörgåsbord of other interesting titles – including a rare 10th impression (black DJ) Moonraker, and many others besides.

It was this very pleasant memory that saw me wander down, with jaunt in my step, to see what last weekend's spring event would offer.

And yet – sorry as I am to say this – my over-arching reflection about this most recent of showcases was first disappointment, and then a nagging fear about where things might be going from here.

Essentially, whereas last time round grumbles about prices were more than offset and deflected by the variety and depth of Fleming titles on show, this year there was 'only' high prices, and virtually nothing Bond-related on offer.  

And that, friends, is a bad combination!

I get it, not all fairs will be great

I do understand the fact that not every book fair I go to can always be great. (And I think I was rather treated by the last one).

And I’m not always expecting vast quantities of ultra rare stuff either.

But considering most of the booksellers I speak to say Bond always sells, I did expect dealers to anticipate their audience, and bring along stock they knew will shift.

And so it left me wondering.

Either very good stock just isn’t out there; dealers haven’t planned their buying for this particular event very well, or thirdly maybe lots of the dealers there are instead preparing to be at the Firsts Book Fair in London on 15th May (the UK’s premier rare book event), and so – with only a few weeks to go – are saving their best stuff for this.

So I asked…!

Never one to shy away from asking difficult questions, I decided to quiz a few dealers to see what the lie of the land was.

The answers I got back were a mixture of ‘I didn’t get round to getting any’ to – (and just as worryingly), a palpable sentiment that decent books were getting increasingly hard to find, and – as a result – harder to buy at prices they could invest in to try and resell.

I have to admit that as a Bond reseller myself - with the aim of presenting only the very best condition books - it’s rarely availability of books that’s the issue. There are plentiful supplies of average/poor condition books out there.

Rather, it is indeed ‘quality’ that is so difficult to get.

So...is there starting to be not enough 'good' books to go around?

In previous blogs I’ve spoken about survival rates of Bond books, and pondered whether we’ll start to see waves of new books hitting the market for the first time (as collectors who have owned Bond books since they came out unfortunately pass away, and their estates are cleared out by the next generation).

Generally speaking, I've considered collection clearouts as at least ensuring availability of stock.

But – with the answers of these dealers still ringing in my ears – I grudgingly have to accept that while seeing books hit the market for the first time is broadly good, it's actually no guarantee of plentiful supplies of good condition books. Because, if truth be told, lots of people didn't care for their books terribly well.

So I’m rather with Oxford’s dealers here: that we could already be entering a period where finding really good stuff (books that are in pristine condition), will become an ever-more difficult task – as those that are good get quickly bought up an stay in private collections – while what's left are more the ‘best of the rest’ than the good or great.

Which brings me to price.

The few of the Bond titles I did find were tremendously (and I mean tremendously), expensive – much more-so than I, or other collectors would have expected.

This You Only Live Twice (above) – albeit in very nice condition (and yes, I agree, it is ‘near fine’), was priced up at an eye-watering £850. Even with the standard haggle wiggle-room dealers go in for, this (to me), is too much.

Here at www.jamesbondfirsteditions.co.uk I recently sold a much better one (below) - for only £275 (see below). (PS I'm currently in the process of re-populating my website with new stock, so if you don't see what you're after, get in touch).

I also spotted this very acceptable (below) The Spy Who Loved Me.

It even had the desired ‘dropped quad’ (not that the dealer seemed to draw any attention to it – I think he probably didn’t realise its significance). But its price? A teeth-whistling £1,250! (see my one for £750 by comparison).

Are we seeing a price-reset?

As much as I go to book fairs to feel enlivened by what I see in the wild, yes, I’ll admit it, a lot of the time I’m also there doing market research; seeing what’s appearing; understanding what dealers can get hold of, and what they feel is a fair market value.

If my observations, and discussions with dealers from the Oxford Fair are right, maybe we’re already witnessing the start of an upward reset in prices.

I have previously wondered if the lull in the movie franchise might be having a downward pressure on book demand/prices. But from what I’m hearing, the film-delay is more than being offset by the physical (and very real), scarcity of remaining good condition copies, combined with a paucity of really good quality fresh-to-market books.

A surplus of poor/average books is – it seems – only making anything that’s better really stand out.

But, as already hinted at, anything that's really good is now not able to be bought for the prices dealers used to be able to buy them at. And, this means they're being deterred from buying, because they can’t realistically make any money on them. What stock they do find/are able to buy is now being priced against this new (higher) purchasing price.

This is never good news for collectors.

But - and I am loathed to say this - I do feel collectors need to adapt to the new reality.

I’ve also previously written that most dealers don’t over-price books for the hell of it. Mostly, they don’t want to buy books that they’ll be hanging onto forever. They need quick turnaround to continue buying new stock. Books are priced (usually), to sell.

So if Bond books are getting this pricey, I’m going to stick my head out and say the books dealers are buying have got more expensive too.

The percentage profit they want will probably have stayed the same. It’s just that their input costs have swelled.

This isn't a situation I like to see. I want collectors to be able to afford books, and here at jamesbondfirsteditions I'm doing my level best to find and hunt down titles that I think are as good as any boutique dealer can offer, AND which are competitively priced.

A caveat to this conversation about the Oxford Book Fair is that I think dealers do add their ‘book fair premium’, and do temporarily inflate their prices accordingly. And despite books being expensive, I was seeing plenty of money changing hands (one buyer I saw wrote out a cheque that had a Coutts Bank header on it!)

But, for Bond at least, I’m going to have to say, that with demand apparently as keen as ever, it’s basic economic theory that’s taking over. Scarcity of supply,  fewer remaining ‘good’ books; less good stuff hitting the market; it all adds up to one thing – the books we love and cherish getting that little bit harder (more expensive) to buy.

But worry not.. in the meantime, I'll be doing 'my' best to try and keep the books we love at affordable prices.

The best of the rest...

It was a small spattering of Bond this time around at the Oxford Book Fair.

These were the highlights from what were very slim pickings indeed!

Above (left) - A Book Club Thunderball, and alas, not a first impression, but a 5th print of On Her Majesty's Secret Service

Above (right) - Two first prints - none of them cheap!

Two decent first print paperbacks were on display

Nearly but not quite! 

Above, I found this pan paperback of Casino Royale - but alas it was a second printing. Elsewhere I saw this unusual rebinding (first edition) of You Only Live Twice - for £250 - much better value.

And that was it!

In a few weeks' time I'll be attending the Firsts London Book Fair. I will reveal what I find there.

Hopefully they'll be some good stuff! But I already know it won't be cheap!!