This week a paperback with a 'signed' Ian Fleming signature sold for £908. Did the buyer get a bargain, or did they just see what they wanted to see? And how will they ever really know?
Psychologists call it ‘confirmation bias’.
It’s when people want to believe something so much, that they’ll actively seek out the information that supports their pre-existing view (or will interpret the evidence before them in a way that confirms what they already want to be true).
It explains why millions of people still believe we never actually landed on the moon, and it explains why other key conspiracies still rage on today.
And perhaps it explains why this rather tatty ‘Ian Fleming’-signed paperback sold for nearly £1,000 on eBay this week (see below):
Leading up to its sale, book collector and Bond book internet forums have been fixated with this book – one that was so casually advertised (using AI to do the description), that nothing was given away, and all collectors had to go on was their instincts.
No back-story was given on how the owner came to have this signature; no yarn about how the signature might have been acquired; no previous owner history – nothing.
It’s a classic example of presenting a picture, saying nothing whatsoever about it, and leaving it up to the audience to make of it what they think.
And make of it they most certainly did.
Launched with a start price of 95.00 on 1st February, it had its first bid a few days later.
After sitting there not moving for a week, things then happened at they often do on eBay – with a great flurry of bids in the final day.
Between 5pm on 11th February and just after 8.30pm on the same day (the day the auction ended), this book shot up in price, from £130, climbing to £200 by 8.17pm.
In just another 17 minutes – the last minutes of the auction – bidding raced up even faster: £350 at 8:20pm; £400 just a few second later; £500 by 8:21pm; £600 by 8:23pm.
And so to the big crescendo: £640 at 8:33 – a minute to go, and still this listing had legs.
Half a minute later it had leapt to £888.00 – surely that was its limit?
But no, there was still more to come. In the dying seconds, £908 was bid, it’s final resting price. Book sold. One presumes – ‘no returns’.
So there we have it.
What it all means?
As soon as the existence of this book was known about, most of the people commenting about it felt the same – that on balance the signature was either fake, or certainly not easy to say with any certainty that it looked within the realms of 'normal'.
But, while most agreed it was ‘suspect’, it was hard for people to be truly definitive (one added it was “not obviously fake” to them.
And so it seemed that attention then turned to using other corroboratory routes/clues – such as whether its validity could be supported (or not) through other means – like debating the merits of how Fleming used to sign his signatures.
Here a debate started about whether Fleming usually used blue vs black ballpoint.
Blue – it was clarified – was used most of the time, but examples of black are not unheard of – so the door of possibility was left slightly ajar again.
See what’s unfolding here?
Where there’s a scintilla of ‘hope’ that this is the genuine article, people want to find reasons to say that it is.
In psychology, research consistently shows that people are biased to interpret evidence in ways that are consistent with their desires.
This means that people may ultimately come to believe that the weight of evidence supports the position that they already wanted to believe was true.
And they will believe this without recognising that their own desires influenced the evaluation of the evidence.
To me though (and I'm still very much on the fence about this signature), there are just as many indicators to doubt this, as much as there is to swallow it hook line and sinker.
For instance, take a look at 'where' the signature lies (see left). It's on the first inside page, not the title page or half title.
Was this 'really' the only place it could have gone?
To me the positioning seems awkward.
For reference, this is what the very next page looks like from this particular paperback (see below) - ie lots of blank space! (No, it's not the same book, just similarly stained!)
For those who are unscrupulous, this very human yearning; of wanting to believe something is real (when it might not be), is a powerful, and intoxicating one, and it has been used by many to lure buyers in and ultimately be sold fake goods.
To be clear, I’m not making any accusation against this eBay seller specifically.
He has a 100% record and may also fervently believe this signature is good.
The point I’m making, is that for collectors – and in this case those who cherish owning a Fleming signature – the desire to want something to be real can be so strong that some might decide to take talk themselves into it.
They might just think it’s worth gambling £900 on it.
This is especially the case considering a signed limited edition On Her Majesty’s Secret Service costs the price of a good second hand car.
But... there's no evidence to prove it one way or another
The problem of course, is that there is no-one (currently) who I know that is a recognised Fleming authenticator (even Jon Gilbert will only vouch for items Harrington’s is selling).
Whoever bought this book has no chance of actually proving the signature's authenticity - either to themself, or to anyone else when they come to move it on.
Yes, there are autograph authenticators, but these have a poor record of being consistent in their adjudications.
But then again, I'm left with this thought: Maybe they won’t have to.
Because in another few years, they’ll just be another buyer who also wants to believe that it’s the real deal (I personally am not convinced it is). Then the whole cycle repeats itself again.
Call me cynical, but if that signature isn't genuine, that’s a rather depressing thing to think about.
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